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27 September 2008

The First Debate

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The first Presidential Debate is over.

I think it was a tie. Which means Obama won.

This was supposed to be the debate that was going to favor McCain the most (he fought hard to have the first debate over foreign policy, his strength).

McCain did well. Very well. Much better than I expected being as he is an old boring (very boring) fart. But Obama held his own. And that is all he needed to do during the first debate. He did not need to blow McCain out of the water. He just needed not to lose. And he did not lose.

By not losing, Obama scored a victory. The first rule of American politics says that if the leader in the polls does not win the debate, he wins.
And the betting markets suggest that, after the Sarah Palin effect in August, Obama has regained and is in the lead (see the graphs below).
All Obama needs to do now is to let the second rule work his way to the general election. And the second rule says that if at the election there is an economic recession (and it is very likely that the financial mess will not be over by November 4th), the party in power loses. The game may be over.

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INTRODUCTORY NOTE

Starting January 30, 2012, I decided to put the random (economic) thoughts that I was posting on Facebook, in a blog. In this site you will be able to read all Facebook notes going back to 2008, (without my Friend’s comments, unfortunately), but we will only maintain the new thoughts. If you want to check out the old comments, they are still posted on Facebook. If you want to comment on them, you have two options (1) Become a Facebook Subscriber. Since all the posts will also appear in Facebook, you will be able to comment there. (2) Comment on Twitter, as each post will also be announced in Twitter.

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